I read an interesting article today by Alan Kohler about the NBN and the possible effect it will have on the current copper based network. All DSL services such as ADSL, ADSL2+ and Naked DSL utilise the copper phone network, which Telstra current owns. So does a Fibre network which can go to 100Mbps and beyond mean connecting to DSL broadband services now is pointless?

The Crystal Ball of DSL Broadband in Australia

In my opinion, DSL based broadband still has a long future in this country. Here are a few thoughts.

1. Don’t Hold Your Breath For Fibre

We have had some enquiries if it is worth waiting for Fibre before upgrading a current internet plan. No – don’t wait. You’ll be waiting a long, long time. The scheduled completion for the National Fibre network is about 7 years. So unless you want to be keep going with your 256k plan with Bigpond for $59.95 per month for 12GB of data for the next seven years, then moving your internet provider now is definitely worth doing.

Of course the roll out may not take 7 years to your area, but chances are it will be at least 3 or 4 years and that involves a government project sticking to schedule. Not sure that has ever happened yet in the history of governments. The Fibre rollout is due to start in Tasmania later this year, so it will be interesting to see that that plays out. There’s no point rushing into a $43 billion project without having the proper strategy and framework laid out.

So Naked DSL will continue to be a very popular option for many years to come.

2. They Won’t Just Turn Off The Copper Network

Once the fibre network has been built, there won’t be an instant decommissioning of the copper network. Kohler suggests that the following is possible:

“We will therefore have two national networks capable of providing broadband internet – one pretty fast and reasonably cheap (ADSL); another very fast, and more expensive (FTTH).”

I think that is a good, succinct summary of what will be likely to happen. Surprisingly to some people there are still lots of people who don’t have the internet, don’t want the internet and hundreds of thousands of others still using dial up internet. All those people and many ADSL users aren’t going to be queuing up for Fibre if it’s close to $100 per month.

20 million Australians won’t all take up fibre as soon as it’s released. There will be a market for copper based serviced like Naked DSL for years after the NBN is released. There would be outcry against any government which forced people into paying for a more expensive form of broadband.

3. The Copper Network May Become Structurally Separated From Telstra

We can only hope so. Broadband in Australia has suffered for years at the hands of Telstra who wanted to run a monopolistic network. Even though the legislation and intention of the Government was for competitive access on a level playing field.

Telstra has been taken to task a number of times by the ACCC and the government over the past few years. Hopefully Telstra executives are grasping the reality now that Australia doesn’t want monopolistic network ownership. We want progression, competition and innovation. Sol fought against it and lost and has been punted back to America.

It will be interesting to see what happens to Telstra during the NBN process. The may use their copper network for leverage in negotiations for involvement in building the fibre network. I think there is a good chance that Telstra will be structurally separated and so will become a retail company.

But regardless of who owns the copper network, I think Naked DSL and ADSL2+ will be around for years to come.

4. Would I Switch If Fibre Were Available Today?

There are a lot of hypothetical questions here. But if I could get Fibre to my home today for $100 per month for 20GB of downloads, would I do it?

No I wouldn’t. I currently have a Naked DSL connection that synchs at about 15Mbps download speed. I don’t download a whole lot and so it only costs me $49.95 per month.

If there were a whole range of life-altering applications available via a 100Mbps internet connection, then I would definitely reconsider. An open fibre network brings a great opportunity for innovation. It is the platform for life-altering applications we haven’t even dreamed of yet. And if they have been dreamed of, most of them haven’t been built yet.

Much discussion has been around e-Health, Smart Power Networks, e-Commerce, Business and so much more. This isn’t just about downloading movies faster – but those applications still need to be built and that will take time.

So connecting to Naked DSL is still a great option now to save money and get a high speed broadband connection. Check your phone number to see if you can get Naked DSL at your place.